Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
